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Feinberg Forecast: Less Than a Week Remaining Before Final Oscar Voting

02.10.2017

THR’s awards analyst steps away from the Santa Barbara International Film Festival to attend the Oscar Nominees Luncheon and take the temperature of all 24 Oscar categories.

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg’s per-

sonal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

 

PROJECTED STANDINGS

Best Picture

La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Hidden Figures (Fox)

Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
Arrival (Paramount)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Fences (Paramount)

 

Best Director

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

 

Best Actor

Denzel Washington (Fences)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

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